A busy season

In one of the busiest Atlantic hurricane seasons ever, Katrina’s development at the tail end of August should not have been a surprise. Seven named storms formed between the beginning of the season on June 1 and the end of July. July 2005 was a record month, with five named storms developing, the most in that month since records have been kept.

In May the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center had predicted a 70 percent likelihood of an above-normal season for 2005: 12-15 tropical storms, with 7-9 of those becoming hurricanes, including 3-5 major hurricanes. A major hurricane is defined as one with wind speeds of at least 111 miles per hour.

Following July’s record-setting activity, on August 2 NOAA released an update to its 2005 Atlantic hurricane outlook, calling for a 100 percent chance of an above-normal season, expecting a seasonal total of 18-21 tropical storms, with 9-11 becoming hurricanes, and 5-7 of these becoming major hurricanes.

According to NOAA, an average Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 through November 30, produces 10 named storms, in which six become hurricanes, including two major hurricanes.
The most active Atlantic hurricane season was in 1933, with 21 storms, followed by 1995, with 19 storms. The most hurricanes occurring in a season was 12 in 1969, and the highest number of major hurricanes was eight in 1950.

Katrina hits Florida
As predicted, Katrina strengthened into a Category 1 hurricane and made landfall in the heavily populated Fort Lauderdale/Miami area of South Florida. Arriving Thursday evening with maximum sustained winds of 80 mph, the storm moved inland causing more damage than anyone preparing for a “minimal hurricane” could imagine.

• Four people died in Broward County: three killed by falling trees and the fourth when his car struck a tree.
• 1.37 million customers had lost power by 11 p.m.
• An overpass under construction in Miami-Dade County collapsed.
• For the second year in a row, the opening weekend of high school football in Miami-Dade County was postponed by a storm.

Hundreds of thousands of people remained without electricity for days after the storm, and the final death toll reached seven.
Katrina moved slowly over Florida, averaging about six miles per hour and dumping 12-15 inches of rain in its path.
National Hurricane Center Director Max Mayfield stated: “We’re becoming very concerned that, as it moves in the Gulf, even [after weakening] over the peninsula, it will have a very good chance to re-strengthen into a hurricane over the Gulf of Mexico.”

Spinning up in the Gulf

At 8 p.m. (Eastern Time) on Friday, Katrina was a Category 2 hurricane with sustained winds near 100 mph. In a news conference that day, Mayfield had said “I just don’t see any reason why this will not become a very, very powerful hurricane before it’s all over.”

How did he know that?

Hurricanes are the strongest category of tropical cyclonic systems, the scientific term for storms which form in and are fueled by warm waters (81 degrees or warmer) and circulate around a center of low atmospheric pressure. Warm water spawns thunderstorms; if other conditions are perfect, the thunderstorms begin circulating around each other due to the earth’s rotation. If conditions remain perfect for a long enough time, the system becomes self-sustaining and grows and strengthens as long as it remains over warm water.

Once circulation begins, the system is known as a tropical depression. When the system’s sustained winds reach 38 mph or more, it becomes a tropical storm and is given a name. When sustained winds reach 74 mph or more, the tropical storm is classified as a hurricane.

Mayfield’s prediction was a good bet, because when Katrina entered the Gulf of Mexico early on August 26, it came into a very warm and very calm environment. It was not so much a matter of whether it would get stronger, but where it would go. Initial forecasts predicted Katrina would head to the north and east into the Florida Panhandle after it entered the Gulf. Because of the erratic nature of hurricane movement, however, long-range forecasts often change.

St. Tammany takes note

The beginning of what would become a long-term and comprehensive response to the hurricane by the St. Tammany Parish Government was issued on Friday, August 26, as Katrina appeared to be heading towards Louisiana. Parish President Kevin Davis took note of Katrina’s predicted strengthening and its unpredictable course.

“Because the path of Hurricane Katrina is unclear, we are making storm preparations,” said Davis. “The parish is prepared to fully activate emergency operations over the weekend, if necessary.” “Residents are urged to monitor the course of Hurricane Katrina very closely...”

That evening, in anticipation of a possible landfall, Governors Kathleen Blanco of Louisiana and Haley Barbour of Mississippi declared states of emergency.

On Saturday the 27th at 5 a.m., Katrina was upgraded to a Category 3, or major hurricane, as its sustained winds surpassed 111 mph.

St. Tammany’s Emergency Operations Center had been on full activation as of 7 a.m., and, although no shelters had been opened, five sandbag stations were in operation throughout the parish.
Anticipating the possible extreme consequences, Davis issued the following statement: “The path of Hurricane Katrina is uncertain, and as of this afternoon, the probabilities of a strike in our area are increasing. Therefore, I urge citizens to make storm preparations today. I also ask that you check with your neighbors, especially senior citizens, to see if they need help preparing for the storm. This is a time to pull together as a community.”

Evacuation routes

President George W. Bush declared a state of emergency in Louisiana, and during the day, residents of Louisiana’s low-lying areas were told to evacuate. Residents in other areas were urgently advised to do so.

Over a million people in the New Orleans metropolitan area south of St. Tammany were being advised to evacuate. Lessons learned in past attempts to evacuate so many people were being put into place. As all routes out of Orleans and Jefferson parishes lead north, an evacuation of the southshore could not take place without consequences for the northshore.

A major part of the southshore evacuation plan involved converting all the lanes of area interstate highways to one-way travel—the contra-flow plan. Contra-flow was put into effect at 4 p.m. on Saturday.

Both lanes of traffic from New Orleans East on I-10 were routed north on I-59, likewise both sides of I-10 west out of the Metairie/Kenner were routed west, and split to I-55 north to Hammond and I-10 west to Baton Rouge. Traffic on the Causeway going north out of New Orleans was routed on I-12 to Hammond, and then to I-55 north. Traffic on I-12 west (from Lacombe/Slidell) was diverted to U.S. 190 at Covington, routed through town, and then west on 190 to I-55 at Hammond.

Over the fire

Katrina continued on a northward course Saturday afternoon and evening, bringing it over the warmest, deepest mass of water in the Gulf known as the Loop Current. The effect was as if the fire under a pot of boiling water was on full blast. As shown on a NASA website detailing the Loop Current and its interaction with Katrina, as the storm passed over the Loop Current and a large warm core ocean ring, it evolved quickly. NASA stated: “The warm waters of the Loop Current appear to have rapidly fueled the storm as it targeted the coastlines of Louisiana and Mississippi, while the warm waters of the ring seemed to have helped to sustain the hurricane intensity.” (See http://www.nasa.gov/vision/earth/lookingatearth/katrina_seaheight.html.)

In response to the quickly worsening storm, President Davis issued the following statement: “I am ordering an evacuation of all areas below I-12 by noon Sunday. Please be out of your homes by noon. Please leave the area. This evacuation also includes all low-lying river areas in St. Tammany Parish, including the Old Landing, Three Rivers and Tchefuncte River areas.”

Davis also announced that for persons who could not leave the area, the Red Cross would open shelters of last resort at noon on Sunday at William Pitcher Jr. High in Covington and Creekside Elementary in Pearl River.

On Saturday at 11 p.m., the National Hurricane Center issued a hurricane warning for the coast from Morgan City, Louisiana, to the Alabama-Florida border. The warning meant that hurricane conditions were expected in the warning area within the next 24 hours.

Category 5

Katrina strengthened rapidly as it entered the warm waters of the Loop Current. At 2 a.m. Sunday, Katrina escalated to Category 4 strength, with winds exceeding 131 mph. By 7 a.m., the hurricane intensified to Category 5, the worst and highest category on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Category 5 means that sustained winds exceed 155 mph. A storm surge of 18 feet above normal tide level could be expected in a Category 5 hurricane.

Hurricanes of Category 5 strength are rare, and for a Category 5 to make landfall is extraordinary. The National Hurricane Center reports that only three Category Five hurricanes have made landfall in the United States since records began: the Labor Day Hurricane of 1935, Hurricane Camille in 1969 and Hurricane Andrew in August 1992.

The 1935 Labor Day Hurricane struck the Florida Keys with a minimum pressure of 892 mb—the lowest pressure ever observed in the United States. Camille struck the Mississippi Gulf Coast, causing a 25-foot storm surge that inundated Pass Christian. Andrew made landfall over southern Miami-Dade County, Florida causing 26.5 billion dollars in losses—the costliest hurricane on record.
Katrina’s winds reached their peak intensity of 175 mph, and the pressure fell to 902 mb—the fourth lowest pressure on record. “[Katrina] is a very, very dangerous hurricane,” said National Hurricane Center director Max Mayfield.

Sunday

On Sunday, President Bush declared a state of emergency in Mississippi and ordered federal assistance. The National Hurricane Center said low-lying areas along the Gulf Coast could expect storm surges of up to 25 feet as the storm, with top sustained winds of 160 mph, hit early the next day.

The news that Katrina had hit Category 5 caused the most urgent message yet issued by St. Tammany Parish: “This is Parish President Kevin Davis. Evacuate all areas of St. Tammany Parish south of Interstate 12, and low-lying river areas, by noon today. Hurricane Katrina has winds in excess of 160 miles per hour. According to the National Weather Service, the eye of Hurricane Katrina will pass over St. Tammany. Tropical storm force winds growing to hurricane force winds will begin tonight. Hurricane force winds will reach us early tomorrow morning, possibly exceeding 130 miles per hour, and stay with us for six or more hours. Over eight inches of rain and a 15-foot storm surge are possible. Evacuate now.”

The shelters of last resort in Covington and Pearl River filled up quickly. At 3:30 p.m., the parish said that additional shelters would be opened at Abita Middle School, Riverside Elementary in Pearl River, Pineview Middle School in Covington, Fifth Ward Junior High in Bush and Sixth Ward Elementary School in Pearl River.

It was also announced on Sunday that parish schools would be closed on Monday and Tuesday.
On the southshore, New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin declared the mandatory evacuation of Orleans Parish. “Ladies and gentlemen, this is not a test. This is the real deal.” He urged people to remain calm, “board up your homes, make sure you have medicine, make sure your car has enough gas in it,” and prepare to leave.

Landfall

Late Sunday, Katrina turned to the northwest and then north. At 6:10 a.m. on Monday, August 29, the storm made landfall in Plaquemines Parish just south of Buras, after weakening slightly to a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds. Katrina continued northward, making a second landfall near the Louisiana-Mississippi border at 10 a.m. as a Category 3 hurricane with maximum winds of about 125 mph. Although weakening as it moved inland, it still had hurricane force winds 100 miles inland.

Catastrophe
As it journeyed north, winds on the east side of the eye pushed huge amounts of water into Lake Pontchartrain, causing massive flooding all along the northshore. From the Rigolets to Lacombe to Mandeville, Madisonville and Manchac, every community on the northshore experienced devastating flood and wind damage.

Katrina’s western eyewall passed directly over Slidell, with winds gusting over 150 mph for long periods of time. Lakeshore Estates, Oak Harbor, Eden Isles and the homes, camps, marinas, lounges and restaurants along Highway 11, Lakeview Drive and Carr Drive were, for the most part, ruined by the storm surge. Before the water drained from the city, the shoreline of Lake Pontchartrain was not found at Lakeview Drive but more than a mile away at Old Spanish Trail. The twin spans of I-10 between Slidell and New Orleans East were virtually destroyed, and much of I-10 in New Orleans East was under water.

Similar scenes could be found all along the lake, where wind-pushed waters flooded Mandeville’s lakefront. Mandeville Yacht Club, Rips on the Lake, Don’s, and often-storm-battered Java Grotto suffered severe damage.

Inland, the wind ravaged the entire northshore. Trees and telephone poles were toppled parish-wide, opening new vistas into many a home which had never had a skylight before, and blocking rural dirt roads and interstate highways alike.

Parish closed

On Tuesday, August 30, St. Tammany Parish announced that the parish was closed, and asked residents who had evacuated not to return until further notice.

On September 1, Parish President Davis summed up the destruction in St. Tammany Parish, and let residents know that local government was working full speed ahead to make the parish livable: “St.

Tammany Parish has been heavily impacted by Hurricane Katrina. There is no electricity or water service anywhere in the parish. Gas leaks have been reported parish-wide. Hospitals are running on generators and are at capacity. Ambulance services are only responding to life-threatening emergencies. Many of our residents evacuated. They need to stay where they are. DO NOT RETURN TO ST. TAMMANY PARISH.

“There is no fuel available in St. Tammany. Returning evacuees and those attempting to pass through St. Tammany are running out of gas and finding themselves in need of shelter, further straining parish government and aid organizations. It is important to public safety that our population remains at a minimum. I have asked those in the parish who have the means to please evacuate now to the west or north, going beyond Baton Rouge or Jackson, Mississippi.

“Public schools will be closed until at least October 1.

“The Causeway is open only to emergency traffic, and the I-10 Twin Spans are heavily damaged and closed for the foreseeable future. There is no access to Orleans, Jefferson, St. Bernard or Plaquemines—or any other southshore parish—through St. Tammany.

“We are coordinating our efforts with all municipal, law enforcement and relief agencies from the Emergency Operations Center in Covington. Sheriff Jack Strain and the entire Sheriff’s Office are working rescue operations around the clock.

“Our first task is to clear major roads to allow personnel to respond to emergencies. All fire departments are operational. Ambulance services are present. At this time, medical response is available only in life-threatening situations. We are clearing roads to allow FEMA and American Red Cross trucks access to the parish. They are arriving.

“Water is being delivered, feeding stations are opening, and additional shelters are opening. There are no utilities in St. Tammany Parish at this time. No water, electricity, sewer service, etc. are available.

“PUBLIC SAFETY ALERTS: If you remained in St. Tammany Parish during the storm and are returning to a flooded area to check your home, beware of snake infestations. Water snakes may have entered your neighborhood and home with the flood waters. Be cautious of furniture and other hiding places. Anti-venom is available at hospitals.

“If you did not evacuate and have returned to your home, turn off all circuit breakers in your circuit box, including the main, to prevent electrical shock and fires when power is restored.

“VACCINE RECOMMENDATIONS: It would be beneficial to get a tetanus booster if over five years since your last one, and any other that may be recommended by your health care provider. This will alleviate the demand on local supplies.”

The road back

Parish and city officials and employees, citizens, National Guard, Red Cross and other volunteers and utility company crews worked around the clock to make the northshore habitable again.
About two weeks after Katrina hit, some parish residents were allowed to return.

On September 13, 2005, St. Tammany Parish Public School System officials released dates for school system employees to return to work in anticipation of reopening schools October 3—a major step on the journey back.